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Africa’s Next Top Property Trends

Article originally appeared on Asset News Hub (22 August 2018)

Major trends that are likely to shape Africa’s property market in the future show the sector is getting smarter. It is responding to infrastructure and social challenges, and easing the ability to do business on the continent. These trends also reveal exciting opportunities for property investment across its multiple distinct markets.

For its 9th consecutive year, the Africa Property Investment (API) Summit & Expo, held at the Sandton Convention Centre on Thursday 20 and Friday 21 September 2018, will unpack and highlight some of the key trends affecting the continent’s real estate sector.

Providing access to the largest pool of real estate investors, developers and stakeholders on the continent, this year’s API Summit will provide the ideal setting for global players and local businesses to discuss a wide variety of industry trends, including:

 

Industrial Property
Due to a lack of professionally managed logistics infrastructure and inefficient supply chains across sub-Saharan Africa, logistics cost as a percentage of product retail costs is still very high at 30-40%. According to Toby Selman, CEO for Africa Logistics Properties, there is currently almost no grade-A warehousing on the continent.

“It tends to be the ugly duckling in the property sector as most investors flock to offices and retail first. And while most investors think the highest demand comes from multinationals, it is the fast-growing regional companies that tend to be the first movers, largely because they have higher local growth rates than the international companies. We see the main demand for our facilities from e-commerce, third-party logistics companies, product distributors and retailers,” he says.

Africa Logistics Properties believe they are helping to solve the logistics infrastructure challenge with their privately-financed distribution and industrial facilities for the rental market.

“We are disrupting the status quo with our modern logistics and distribution warehouses, offering businesses the chance to consolidate existing go-down based operations into a purpose-built grade-A facility at an affordable cost for the very first time.”

 

Affordable Housing
While governments can no longer afford to ignore the housing crisis, developers are coming to understand that low-cost housing can be a significant and lucrative market. Innovative financing structures backed by global institutional investors could also allow large-scale implementation.

But a pressing issue many African countries face is the lack of durable, low-cost housing with a minimum standard of infrastructure to prevent the spread of diseases.

“The target group for low-cost housing, in general, does not have enough equity or credit history to finance the purchase of even low-cost dwelling units. Without innovative financing solutions there can be no mass supply of low-cost dwelling units,” says Eckardt M.P. Dauck, Chairman for Zero Carbon Designs Ltd.

To address challenges around quality, Zero Carbon Designs has developed solutions that are based on a local value chain including raw-material sourcing, planning, manufacturing, and construction.

“Our processes ensure job creation and income within the country, while products are manufactured under strict quality controls. They are scalable, allowing for large numbers of housing units to be built, and they quick to construct, ensuring project finance costs are low, and they are also sustainable, environmentally friendly and carbon neutral,” he says.

 

Student Accommodation
Student accommodation is very much emerging in greater Africa, with the supply of student housing still low on the continent, South Africa being the exception.

Craig McMurray, Respublica CEO, says that while there are regional and nodal hotspots across all geographies, the African continent primarily sees domestic student demand and one where the highest need is an affordable product.

“This is in contrast to the more developed markets in Europe, UK, and Australia, which are primarily driven by international student demand and generally higher levels of affordability,” he says. Respublica started out eight years ago with their first facility of 300 beds and will be nearing 10,000 beds across the country by January next year.

“We believe that the demand for tertiary education will likely be driven by increasing urbanisation, higher living standards, mobility, as well as technological advancement in educational content delivery. This will have differing implications for the industry. However, I expect the demand trend to be upwardly steep but continually constrained by affordability at state, university and student levels,” notes McMurray.

 

Serviced Apartments
Serviced apartments in Africa represent less than 1% of all hotel rooms whereas internationally the figure is close to 9%. Currently, the highest concentration is in South Africa.

The Capital, which dominates the South African market, has combined serviced apartments with its regular hotel and conferencing to give their clients all the services of a hotel such as security, flexibility of stay length, room service, and a concierge at the same high standard expected in 4- and 5-star hotels.

“Due to historic undersupply, serviced apartments are increasing. Africa requires a secure and affordable alternative to regular hotels for consultants to stay for the many projects in Africa as the continent, unfortunately, imports a lot of skills internationally,” says Marc Wachsberger, Managing Director for The Capital.

While there is no shortage of long-stay accommodation available, not all experiences are equal. The Capital’s model, which has taken 10 years to develop, emphasizes operational skills to ensure that extended stay is positioned correctly in the market.

 

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Fairvest | Why Township Malls Outperform their Suburban Counterparts

Article originally appeared on BusinessLIVE (13 September 2018)

Malls that cater for lower-income shoppers are delivering better returns than their suburban counterparts

Real estate investors may well be tempted to stash their cash elsewhere in light of the disappointing income and share price performances delivered by JSE-listed property stocks this year.

Few SA-based real estate investment trusts (Reits) have bucked the general trend. Fairvest Property Holdings is a notable exception.

The company, which owns a R3bn portfolio of more than 40 retail centres that cater mostly for lower-income shoppers in townships and rural areas, last week reported dividend growth just short of 10% for the year to the end of June. That’s impressive in a recessionary climate, and nearly double the average 5.5% rise in dividend payouts expected from the sector as a whole this year.

Moreover, Fairvest continues to shine on the capital growth front, notching up a share price gain of about 20% in the year to date versus the SA listed property index’s drop of 23% over the same time.

“Fairvest’s distribution growth of 9.9% was perhaps the silver lining in what has been a pretty cloudy results season. Overall, Fairvest’s was a great result, with no one-off earnings,” says Kundayi Munzara, director and portfolio manager at Sesfikile Capital.

He says it is particularly impressive that Fairvest’s portfolio achieved like-on-like net income growth of 11.7%. It was driven by rental hikes of about 7%, new lettings that pushed vacancies down from close to 5% to a low of 3.5% in the year to June, and improved cost recovery. Munzara says these numbers are indicative of management “sweating the assets”.

He believes other smaller property stocks could take a leaf out of Fairvest’s book: “The company compensates for lower liquidity and diversity by delivering sector-beating results, and its management team has a deep understanding of the portfolio, with a business plan for each property.”

Though the loan-to-value ratio of a relatively low 25% poses an opportunity for Fairvest to acquire more assets without tapping the capital markets, Munzara says the low level of debt that is fixed is a concern.

“Only 46% of Fairvest’s debt is fixed, versus the sector average of more than 70%. The risk of limited hedging is that earnings could be [lowered] should local interest rates and funding costs rise,” he notes.

 

 

The question for investors who haven’t yet bought Fairvest shares is whether they have missed the boat. It doesn’t appear so. Ian Anderson, chief investment officer at Bridge Fund Managers, says Fairvest has been one of the fund’s preferred holdings for quite some time and remains an attractive buy at current levels of about 230c a share, given the company’s above-market growth prospects over the next two to three years.

Despite Fairvest being the top-performing SA Reit over five and 10 years in terms of total returns, Anderson says it surprisingly still trades at a discount to its NAV.

He ascribes that to its relatively small size, which means the company tends to attract few institutional investors.

“Double-digit growth in net property income is what sets Fairvest apart from its peer group. The company’s focus on low-income mass-market retail in a sector where disposable income is supported by social welfare grants has clearly paid dividends,” says Anderson.

He adds that management has delivered on its growth promises year in and year out, without the market taking much notice. “But I think a few more investors will look at Fairvest following last week’s results announcement, particularly on the back of disappointing outlook statements from Growthpoint, Hyprop and the Resilient group over the past few weeks.”

Kelly Ward, investment analyst at Metope Investment Managers, has a similar view.

“Fairvest now trades at a forward yield of 9.9%, which we believe to offer good value in the current market.”

Ward says Fairvest’s pleasing set of results comes at what is clearly a very trying time for SA consumers because of rapidly rising living costs, including recent VAT and fuel price hikes, in a contracting economy. Even more encouraging, she says, is that Fairvest has forecast dividend growth of a further 8%-10% for the year ending June 2019 when many local counters are offering investors growth in line with inflation at best.

“We believe there is more pressure to come for the consumer, and very few green shoots given SA’s recent GDP numbers and forecasts,” says Ward.

At the results presentation last week, Fairvest CEO Darren Wilder said he believes the company’s competitive advantage is that it is a simple business with a specific focus. “We let our space and we collect rentals. We don’t pay any fees or one-off profits as part of our distributions, so we don’t have to reset our base as some other companies are doing these days.”

Wilder stressed that management doesn’t intend to change its investment strategy. “Our focus will remain on retail properties that cater for the lower LSM market.

“And we are not going offshore or into the rest of Africa.”

Referring to Fairvest’s target market, Wilder said there’s no doubt that lower-income shoppers are more resilient in an economic downturn than middle-and higher-income consumers. “Our malls cater mostly for daily shoppers who typically spend R80 a visit on a basket of food.

“They have very little debt, are often recipients of social grants and don’t have to pay for housing, electricity or water.

“[Their] disposable income as a percentage of total earnings is much higher than that of middle-and higher-income households, which are now under pressure.”